关键词: 网络舆情, 等级期望效用理论, 情绪, 三方演化博弈

Abstract: [Purpose/Significance] With the rapid development of communication technology, the number of Internet users has increased rapidly, and the public opinion on the Internet has also developed according to the requirements of the times. Aiming at the online public opinion of public emergencies under the influence of emotional factors and the government's response strategies, a tripartite game model of netizens, online media and the government is constructed, and its development trend and the influence of emotional factors are simulated and analyzed. [Method/Process] This paper introduces the theory of hierarchical expected utility (RDEU), establishes a tripartite game model of netizens, online media and the government by using the replication dynamic equation, analyzes the influence of emotional factors on the behavioral decision-making of the main body and the development trend of public opinion of the three parties under the influence of different emotional states. Finally, through Matlab software simulation, the influence of emotional state on decision-making is analyzed, and the strategies and suggestions are proposed from the perspective of the government. Hierarchical expected utility theory (RDEU) is introduced to establish a tripartite evolutionary game model, the influence of emotional factors on the agent's behavior decision-making and the development trend of public opinion under the influence of different emotional states are analyzed, and the influence of emotional states on the agent's decision-making is also analyzed. [Results/Conclusions] Under the influence of emotional factors, different combinations of emotional states of each subject produce different results, and all three parties adopt different strategies according to the actual benefits, and the government's own emotions have the most obvious impact on the results of the evolutionary game. When the government has no mood or is in an optimistic mood, the online environment is relatively unstable, and it is necessary to strengthen the management of public opinion; when the government is in a pessimistic mood, the government needs to actively supervise and control public opinion so that public opinion will be well managed, and the network environment will be more harmonious. By analyzing the behavioral strategies of the tripartite game under the influence of emotional factors, the following suggestions are made on the management of public opinion from the government's perspective: 1) The government must always pay attention to the emotions of netizens, try to reduce the participation rate of netizens in online public opinion, strengthen education and improve the quality of netizens. 2) The government should reduce the dissemination of public opinion events by online media, encourage online media to report comprehensively and objectively, and avoid false information that causes negative emotions of the online public opinion.

Key words: Internet public opinion, RDEU, emotion, tripartite evolutionary game