农产品价格指数构建与实证

doi:10.13998/j.cnki.issn1002-1248.23-0334

摘要/Abstract

摘要： [目的/意义]中国是农业大国,农产品价格的稳定直接决定着中国经济的发展。编制农产品价格指数,对于建立健全农产品价格指数体系、各方参与者直观了解农产品市场发展状况,提高市场监测预警水平有重要意义。[方法/过程]以当前农产品价格及价格指数相关研究成果为基础,对农产品价格指数构建原则、农产品价格指数体系框架、指数分类分级、测算模型及权重确定方法进行研究探讨,并基于统计数据和调研数据开展了农产品价格指数构建实证研究。[结果/结论]实证结果表明,农产品价格指数体系框架和指数分类分级方式合理,指数测算模型以及权重确定方式科学可行,不仅丰富和完善了农产品价格指数体系构建理论和方法,形成的北京市农产品批发价格系列指数,也为北京市农产品市场运行监测预警,农产品品牌影响力提升以及农业保险实施发挥积极作用。

关键词: 价格指数, 模型, 农产品, 北京, 数字经济

Abstract: [Purpose/Significance] China is a major agricultural country, and the stability of agricultural product prices directly determines the development of China's economy. Developing an agricultural product price index is of great significance for establishing a sound agricultural product price index system, providing participants with a clear understanding of the development status of the agricultural product market, and improving levels for market monitoring and early warning. [Method/Process] Based on the current research results on agricultural product prices and price indices, this study explores the principles of constructing agricultural product price indices, the framework of agricultural product price index system, index classification and grading, calculation models, and weight determination methods, in order to develop a set of agricultural product price index construction methods that are in line with the operational characteristics of agricultural products in the current wholesale market. Based on statistical data and industry research data, an empirical study was conducted on the construction of agricultural product price indices. The five major categories of agricultural product price indices, sub-categories of agricultural product price indices, large variety of agricultural product price indices, and single variety of agricultural product price indices are weighted based on the market volume of each variety of agricultural product during the reporting period of the wholesale market, using the Pap index as the principle, and given weights based on the market volume during the reporting period. The weight of the overall agricultural product price index has been optimized and adjusted, and the model has been constructed using the basis principle of the Laplace index. The weight of major categories of agricultural products such as meat, poultry, eggs, aquatic products, grain and oil, fresh fruits and vegetables is based on per capita agricultural product expenditure data from the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, while the weight of major categories of agricultural products is based on research data from the Beijing agricultural industry, avoiding the problem of imbalanced weight. [Results/Conclusions] The empirical results indicate that the framework and classification of the agricultural product price index system are reasonable, and the index calculation model and weight determination method are scientific and feasible. This not only enriches and improves the theory and method of constructing the agricultural product price index system, but also provides useful reference for the construction of other circulation chain price indexes of agricultural products, to develop the Beijing agricultural product wholesale price series index. It also plays a positive role in market monitoring and early warning of the operation of the Beijing agricultural product market, enhancing the influence of agricultural product brands, and implementing agricultural insurance.

Key words: price index, model, agricultural products, Beijing, digital economy

中图分类号:

F222

赵安平, 张琳, 王存存, 王增飞, 赵浩森, 王晓东. 农产品价格指数构建与实证[J]. 农业图书情报学报, 2023, 35(9): 91-99.

ZHAO Anping, ZHANG Lin, WANG Cuncun, WANG Zengfei, ZHAO Haosen, WANG Xiaodong. The Method of Developing Agricultural Price Index[J]. Journal of Library and Information Science in Agriculture, 2023, 35(9): 91-99.

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