农业图书情报学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 45-57.doi: 10.13998/j.cnki.issn1002-1248.20-0876

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于创新网络社区主题发现和S曲线的技术预测

李蕾1, 宋俭宁2, 宋天华1,*   

  1. 1.哈尔滨工业大学 图书馆,哈尔滨 150090;
    2.东北农业大学,哈尔滨 150038
  • 收稿日期:2020-09-25 出版日期:2021-04-05 发布日期:2021-04-30
  • 通讯作者: *宋天华(ORCID:0000-0003-1549-3613),博士,研究馆员,研究方向为图书情报、技术创新和知识产权。E-mail:tianhua_s@163.com
  • 作者简介:李蕾(ORCID:0000-0002-5503-3358),馆员,研究方向为数字文献资源和竞争情报。宋俭宁(ORCID:0000-0002-7206-536),本科生,研究方向为农学
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“基于引文网络图数据挖掘的热点技术领域预测研究”(71003020)

Technology Forecasting Based on Topic Identification of Online Innovation Communities and S-Curve

LI Lei1, SONG JianNing2, SONG TianHua1,*   

  1. 1. Library Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090;
    2. Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150038
  • Received:2020-09-25 Online:2021-04-05 Published:2021-04-30

摘要: [目的/意义]从中观视角进行技术预测,对于企业、行业和国家至关重要,建立一套适合方法很有必要。[方法/过程]本文综合应用专利引文网络社区甄别和文本挖掘方法,建立了兼顾网络连接性和孤立节点的最大分割主题分类方法,对技术创新社区进行侦测,并应用S-曲线模型对分离出来的创新社区进行发展趋势预测。[结果/结论]对杂交水稻育种创新领域的实证研究表明,研究提出的方法既丰富了技术预测理论和方法,也从中观视角给出了相关创新机构和国家层面的策略建议。

关键词: 技术预测, 创新网络, 网络社区发现, 文本挖掘, 主题分类, 专利引文, 杂交水稻

Abstract: [Purpose/Significance] It is very important for enterprises, industries and countries to carry out technology prediction from a meso-perspective, so it is necessary to establish a set of suitable methods. [Method/Process] Applying text mining and detection of patent citation network, this study built subject clustering based on biggest fragmenting to detect innovation communities and with s-curve to forecast technology development of innovation communities. [Results/Conclusions] The empirical research on hybrid rice breeding innovation field shows that the proposed method not only enriches the theory and method of technology prediction, but also gives the relevant innovation institutions and national level strategic suggestions from the meso-perspective.

Key words: technological forecasting, innovation network, network community discovering, text mining, subject clustering, patent citation, hybrid rice

中图分类号: 

  • G303

引用本文

李蕾, 宋俭宁, 宋天华. 基于创新网络社区主题发现和S曲线的技术预测[J]. 农业图书情报学报, 2021, 33(4): 45-57.

LI Lei, SONG JianNing, SONG TianHua. Technology Forecasting Based on Topic Identification of Online Innovation Communities and S-Curve[J]. Journal of Library and Information Science in Agriculture, 2021, 33(4): 45-57.