技术预测研究现状与未来展望

doi:10.13998/j.cnki.issn1002-1248.2019.06.19-0535

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 技术预测不仅可以辅助科技战略决策者调控政策倾向、合理进行资源分配,还能够帮助有关研究人员及时追踪领域前沿,具有不容忽视的作用。然而随着科学技术的迅猛发展,各类信息也呈现出爆炸式的增长,技术预测活动面临着空前的挑战,如何有效使用大量的信息,提高技术预测的系统性以及科学性,成为亟待解决的问题。笔者首先对技术预测的概念进行辨析,进而梳理了国内外技术预测的发展历程,最后对部分国家技术预测项目的现状进行总结,在此基础上提出技术预测的未来研究展望。

关键词: 技术预测, 发展历程, 未来趋势

Abstract: Technology forecasting can not only help science and technology strategy decision makers regulate policy tendency and allocate resources, but also support researchers grasp research direction. Therefore, it plays an important role in the development of society. However, with the rapid development of technology and explosive growth of all kinds of information, technology forecasting activities are facing unprecedented challenges. How to use the information effectively and improve the systematic and scientific of technology forecasting approach has become an urgent problem to be solved. This paper first differentiates the concept of technology forecasting, and then summarizes the development process of it. Finally, after analyzing the current situation of technology forecasting projects in some countries, we put forward the development trends for the future technology forecasting.

Key words: technology forecasting, development process, development trend

中图分类号:

G252

汪雪锋, 张硕, 韩晓彤, 乔亚丽. 技术预测研究现状与未来展望[J]. 农业图书情报, 2019, 31(6): 4-11.

WANG Xuefeng, ZHANG Shuo, HAN Xiaotong, QIAO Yali. Technology Forecasting: Status and Trends[J]. Agricultural Library and Information, 2019, 31(6): 4-11.

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