基于创新网络社区主题发现和S曲线的技术预测

doi:10.13998/j.cnki.issn1002-1248.20-0876

摘要/Abstract

摘要： [目的/意义]从中观视角进行技术预测,对于企业、行业和国家至关重要,建立一套适合方法很有必要。[方法/过程]本文综合应用专利引文网络社区甄别和文本挖掘方法,建立了兼顾网络连接性和孤立节点的最大分割主题分类方法,对技术创新社区进行侦测,并应用S-曲线模型对分离出来的创新社区进行发展趋势预测。[结果/结论]对杂交水稻育种创新领域的实证研究表明,研究提出的方法既丰富了技术预测理论和方法,也从中观视角给出了相关创新机构和国家层面的策略建议。

关键词: 技术预测, 创新网络, 网络社区发现, 文本挖掘, 主题分类, 专利引文, 杂交水稻

Abstract: [Purpose/Significance] It is very important for enterprises, industries and countries to carry out technology prediction from a meso-perspective, so it is necessary to establish a set of suitable methods. [Method/Process] Applying text mining and detection of patent citation network, this study built subject clustering based on biggest fragmenting to detect innovation communities and with s-curve to forecast technology development of innovation communities. [Results/Conclusions] The empirical research on hybrid rice breeding innovation field shows that the proposed method not only enriches the theory and method of technology prediction, but also gives the relevant innovation institutions and national level strategic suggestions from the meso-perspective.

Key words: technological forecasting, innovation network, network community discovering, text mining, subject clustering, patent citation, hybrid rice

中图分类号:

G303

李蕾, 宋俭宁, 宋天华. 基于创新网络社区主题发现和S曲线的技术预测[J]. 农业图书情报学报, 2021, 33(4): 45-57.

LI Lei, SONG JianNing, SONG TianHua. Technology Forecasting Based on Topic Identification of Online Innovation Communities and S-Curve[J]. Journal of Library and Information Science in Agriculture, 2021, 33(4): 45-57.

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