基于技术互补性的“创新-成熟”型技术机会识别研究

doi:10.13998/j.cnki.issn1002-1248.25-0395

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

[目的/意义] 从技术互补性的视角出发，对创新型离群专利和市场成熟型热点专利进行互补研究，发现“创新-成熟”型技术机会，对技术机会识别的研究有重要意义。 [方法/过程] 首先，利用关联规则算法和离群值检测算法对专利分类号进行处理，得到关联性弱、分布边缘化的分类号代表的离群专利以及关联性强、分布中心化的分类号所代表的热点专利。其次，构建时间加权指数和关键词独特性指数来筛选符合双高指数的离群专利作为创新型离群专利；基于专利所处技术生命周期阶段和专利市场价值测度，筛选热点专利作为市场成熟型热点专利。最后，利用两种类型专利的技术关键词构建二维矩阵，通过生成式拓扑映射算法得到技术空白点，将关键词同时来源于两种类型专利的技术空白点作为最终的“创新-成熟”型技术机会。 [结果/结论] 以新能源汽车电池为例进行实证研究，共发现10项技术机会。经与相关政策文件进行内容比对可知，识别结果与该领域的技术现状和发展规划具有较高的一致性，验证了本研究提出的技术机会识别方法的有效性和科学性。

关键词: 技术互补, 关联规则, 离群值检测算法, 文本挖掘, 生成式拓扑映射

Abstract:

[Purpose/Significance] Starting from the perspective of technological complementarity, this paper proposes a new approach for identifying technological opportunities by comprehensively using outlier patents and hot patents. The fusion analysis of innovative outlier patents and market mature hot patents is carried out to identify "innovation maturity" technological opportunities that combineinnovation and maturity, which is of great significance for enriching the theory and methods of technological opportunityidentification. [Method/Process] First, based on the "association distribution" characteristics of patent classification numbers, a twostagemethod was adopted to screen patents. In the first stage, we used the association rule algorithms to find classification numberswith weak and strong associations, and obtained initial outlier patents and initial hotspot patents. In the second stage, outlier detectionalgorithms were used to obtain the marginalization classification numbers of the two types of patents in the first stage. Patentscontaining marginalization classification numbers were selected as the final outlier patents, while patents containing suchclassification numbers were removed as the final hotspot patents. Second, different methods were adopted for patent screening basedon the differences in innovation and maturity of patent content. Using structured and unstructured data from patent databases, weconstructed time weighted indicators and keyword uniqueness indicators as the screening indicators for innovative outlier patents. Weconstructed a technology lifecycle stage discrimination function and patent market value measurement indicators as the screeningcriteria for mature hot patents in the market. The screened patents were classified into technical fields based on the major categories inthe International Patent Classification. Finally, we identified technological opportunities based on technological complementarity. Byusing the generative topology mapping algorithm to obtain a technical blank point map, the top K keywords in each blank point wereobtained, and the sources of the keywords were marked to ensure that new technological opportunities have both good innovationcapabilities and mature market prospects. In the future, keyword combinations derived from different types of patents were regardedas "innovation mature" technological opportunities. [Results/Conclusions] Taking the field of new energy vehicle batteries as anexample, empirical analysis was conducted to obtain a total of 10 technical opportunities in 5 sub technical fields. Through contentcomparison with relevant policy texts, 7 technical opportunities showed high consistency. It was found that the identification resultswere highly consistent with the current technological layout and development direction of the field, indicating that this method hasgood effectiveness and scientificity in technology opportunity identification, and can provide support for technology prediction andinnovation decision-making.

Key words: complementary technology, association rules, outlier detection algorithm, text mining, generative topological mapping

中图分类号: G353.1

侯艳辉, 王紫瑄, 王家坤. 基于技术互补性的“创新-成熟”型技术机会识别研究[J]. 农业图书情报学报, 2026, 38(1): 44-57.

HOU Yanhui, WANG Zixuan, WANG Jiakun. "Innovation-Aturity" Technology Opportunity Identification Based on Technological Complementarity[J]. Journal of library and information science in agriculture, 2026, 38(1): 44-57.

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技术机会类型	含义	特点
新兴技术	指处于早期发展阶段、具有显著创新性，且可能对社会、经济或特定领域产生深远影响的技术	“0~N”的颠覆性创新
融合技术	指通过整合不同学科、领域或技术的核心优势，形成具有协同效应的技术体系，是技术进化和创新的主要方式和根本体现	“1+1>2”的协同创新
空白技术	在某一领域中尚未出现，但具有较大发展潜力，通过创新填补技术或市场缺口的技术	从0到1的突破性创新

一级指标	二级指标	具体解释
市场影响力X	布局国家或地域数C1	布局国家或地域数越多，说明注重在全球范围内保护自己的知识产权，有利于专利所属企业在国际市场上布局^[36]
	专利许可次数C2	专利许可次数越多，说明该专利在市场上的应用范围越广，企业能够从专利许可中获得更多的市场收益^[37]
	专利转让次数C3	专利的转让数量越多，说明该专利的技术方案在市场上得到了广泛的认可，市场影响力较强^[38]
市场多样性Y	IPC分类号数量C4	分类号越多，说明该专利涵盖了更广泛的技术领域，体现了专利技术在进入市场上的多样性和广度^[39]
市场多样性Y	说明书页数C5	说明书页数较多通常意味着技术细节详尽、创新点密集或解决方案复杂，体现专利覆盖更广泛的技术分支，从而支撑更多样化的市场应用^[40]
市场竞争力Z	发明人数量C6	较多的发明人数量可能意味着更广泛的研发团队，拥有着更强的技术整合能力，从而提升专利质量和竞争力^[41]
	引用非专利文献数C7	引用非专利文献数越多，意味着专利在学术界或行业内受到广泛关注，与其他专利相比更具市场认可^[42]
	专利简单同族个数C8	同族专利越多，说明该专利在多个市场上受到保护和广泛布局，具有较强的市场竞争力^[43]

算法	TP	FP	精确率（Precision）/%	准确率（Accuracy）/%	F1分数
Apriori	215	609	26.09	64.85	0.320
LOF	208	1 515	12.12	29.77	0.186
Apriori+LOF	194	433	30.84	70.81	0.339

H01领域技术机会	关键词来源构成
TO-1	充电Z、加热Z、固定板Z、含氮A、接线柱A
TO-2	电极Z、控制器Z、锂电池A、脱氮A、制备A

技术领域	技术关键词
H02	轻量化、充电、薄膜电池、太阳能、光伏
	充电、交换开关、轻量化、光伏、房车
	薄膜电池、交换开关、快速拆卸、供电、轻量化
B60	电机、智能控制、充电站、控制器、即时充电
G06	自主运行、无线通信接口、车辆动力、燃料电池、充电站
G01	可用容量、通信装置、监测、诊断装置、电池