农业图书情报学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 15-22.doi: 10.13998/j.cnki.issn1002-1248.2020.03.16-0163

• 抗疫智库专题 • 上一篇    下一篇

突发公共卫生事件多维智库研判模型及其应用

牟笛1,2, 陈安1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京 100190;
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-16 出版日期:2020-04-05 发布日期:2020-04-28
  • 通讯作者: 陈安(1970-),男,管理学博士,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,研究员,研究方向:风险与应急管理,邮箱:change1970@163.com。
  • 作者简介:牟笛(1988-),女,理学博士,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,助理研究员,研究方向:风险与应急管理。
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院战略咨询研究院院长青年基金(项目编号:Y9X1831Q01); 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院2019重大咨询专项子课题(项目编号:Y9J0101603); 中国科学院科技应急管理部规划财务司“十四五”规划重点课题(项目编号:规划财务司-2019年-19号)

Multi-dimensional intelligence model for public health emergencies and its application

MU Di1,2, CHEN An1,2   

  1. 1. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
  • Received:2020-03-16 Online:2020-04-05 Published:2020-04-28

摘要: [目的/意义]笔者旨在科学合理的分析突发公共卫生事件,为决策提供系统、详实的情报和建议。[方法/过程]以智库DIIS理论与方法中的综合研判环节为基础,构建了突发公共卫生事件多维智库研判模型,对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情进行了分析。[结果/结论]笔者所构建的公共卫生事件多维研判模型包括主体、客体、介质、进程、场域5个方面,包含多主体、多对象、多属性、多因子、多渠道、多介质、多层次、多阶段、多维度、多尺度等要素的相互关联和作用。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情中,多方应急主体依据机构职责和社会分工采取了相应的应急行为。智库为应对突发公共卫生事件提供科研支持的作用尤为凸显。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对中国社会和经济的发展造成了不良影响,但也为社会的现代化、智能化创造了契机。

关键词: 应急管理, 智库DIIS理论方法, 综合研判, 公共卫生事件, 新型冠状病毒肺炎

Abstract: [Purpose/Significance] The public health emergencies need to be analyzed scientifically and reasonably. Their details and in-depth information are very important for decision-making. [Method/Process] Based on the DIIS theory and methodology in think tanks, this paper constructs a multi-dimensional intelligence model for public health emergencies. The model is further used in the analysis of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia. [Results/Conclusions] The multi-dimensional intelligence model of public health events includes five aspects, namely subject, object, medium, process and field. In the model, multi-subject, multi-item, multi-attribute, multi-factor, multi-method, multi-matter, multi-layer, multi-stage, multi-aspect and multi-scale are correlative and interactive. In the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the subjects of emergency management took corresponding actions according to their social responsibilities. Think tanks provide special scientific support for dealing with the public health emergency. The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia has a negative effect on the development of society and economy, but it also created an opportunity for the modernization and intellectualization.

Key words: emergency management, DIIS, intelligence, public health emergencies, novel coronavirus pneumonia

中图分类号: 

  • C931

引用本文

牟笛, 陈安. 突发公共卫生事件多维智库研判模型及其应用[J]. 农业图书情报学报, 2020, 32(4): 15-22.

MU Di, CHEN An. Multi-dimensional intelligence model for public health emergencies and its application[J]. Journal of Library and Information Science in Agriculture, 2020, 32(4): 15-22.