国家大数据综合试验区建设对农村居民消费潜力的影响研究——基于CFPS数据

doi:10.13998/j.cnki.issn1002-1248.25-0655

Abstract

Abstract:

[Purpose/Significance] Unleashing the consumption potential of rural residents plays a pivotal role in expanding domestic demand and cultivating new economic growth points. The digital economy, driven by data elements as the core force, is gradually becoming a key engine to activate the consumption potential of urban and rural areas in China and promote consumption upgrading. National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones (NBDCPZs), with their "agglomeration of data elements, cross-domain collaborative empowerment, and precise service matching", continuously meet the personalized and diversified consumption demands of rural residents, and have unique value in unleashing the consumption potential of rural residents. [Method/Process] After conducting a theoretical analysis of the impact of the NBDCPZs on the consumption potential of rural residents, this study formulates corresponding research hypotheses. This study uses data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2010 to 2022 and considers the "National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones" policy as a quasi-natural experiment. On the basis of measuring rural residents' consumption potential using the propensity score matching (PSM) method, the difference-in-differences (DID) method is employed to evaluate the impact of NBDCPZs construction on rural residents' consumption potential. [Results/Conclusions] The research findings are as follows: 1) After balancing the endowment characteristics of urban and rural households via the PSM method, the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents was found to be 2 255.23 yuan less than that of urban residents. This indicates that rural areas still have enormous untapped consumption potential. 2) The construction of NBDCPZs significantly promotes the release of rural residents' consumption potential, and this conclusion remains robust after undergoing the parallel trend test, placebo test, counterfactual test, addition of fixed effects, and exclusion of the impacts of other policies. 3) An analysis of heterogeneity across sample household and regional characteristics reveals that the effect of NBDCPZs construction on unlocking rural residents' consumption potential is particularly prominent in eastern China, and is more salient in rural households with a male household head, low income, and middle-aged composition. 4)The mechanism of action indicates that the "National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones" policy releases the consumption potential of rural residents by increasing their income levels and enhancing technological progress in rural areas. Furthermore, household debt exerts a positive moderating effect on the process of releasing rural residents' consumption potential through the construction of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones. Based on the research conclusions, the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: 1) Advance the differentiated layout and integrated application of rural digital infrastructure; 2) Establish a long-term mechanism for enhancing rural residents' digital literacy; 3) Optimize the income increase system for rural residents and consolidate the foundation for consumption upgrading.

Key words: digital economy, National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones (NBDCPZs), rural residents' consumption, consumption potential, difference-in-differences (DID), propensity score matching (PSM)

CLC Number:

F328

LIANG Xiaodong, WANG Ru, WANG Shuaijin, XU Dongmei. Impact of the Construction of National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones on Rural Residents' Consumption Potential: Evidence from CFPS Data[J].Journal of library and information science in agriculture, 2026, (): 1-14.

Figures/Tables 8

Table 1

Descriptive statistics"

变量	定义及赋值	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
消费潜力	PSM匹配城乡居民消费差值的自然对数	-0.185	1.095	-4.365	4.320
DID	$T r e a t$ 和 $P o s t$ 所构成的交互项	0.303	0.460	0	1
户主年龄	实际年龄/岁	49.370	12.090	16	75
性别	男=1，女=0	0.610	0.488	0	1
受教育年限	受教育的实际年限	6.805	4.102	0	19
婚姻状况	已婚=1，未婚=0	0.895	0.306	0	1
健康状况	不健康=1，一般健康=2，比较健康=3，很健康=4，非常健康=5	3.061	1.276	1	5
医疗保险	购买医保=1，未购买医保=0	0.937	0.243	0	1
家庭总收入对数	农户家庭总收入取自然对数	10.47	1.124	0	16.590
是否自有住房	有自有住房=1，无自有住房=0	0.909	0.288	0	1
家庭人均支出	农户家庭人均消费支出取自然对数	9.173	0.895	5.397	12.750
家庭人口抚养比	家庭少儿老年人口数/家庭成年劳动人口数	0.510	0.619	0	6
经济发展水平	地区人均GDP取自然对数	10.670	0.421	9.464	12.100
城乡收入差距	地区城镇居民人均可支配收入/农村居民人均可支配收入	2.705	0.463	1.886	3.735
人力资本水平	地区高等学校在校生人数/总人口	0.020	0.004	0.009	0.034
城乡物价差距	地区城市居民消费价格指数-农村居民消费价格指数	-0.046	0.443	-1.300	1.400
家庭人均收入	农户家庭人均收入（万元）	1.584	2.824	0	266.667
科技创新投入	科技创新投入取自然对数	14.605	1.203	12.460	17.287
家庭负债	非房贷的金融负债取自然对数	2.391	4.634	0	14.914

Table 1

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Fig.1

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地区	匹配前城乡居民人均消费			匹配后城乡居民人均消费
地区	农村居民	城镇居民	消费潜力	农村居民	城镇居民	消费潜力
东部地区	17 235.83	35 143.29	-17 907.46	17 235.83	19 318.71	-2 082.88
中部地区	14 703.82	26 895.67	-12 191.85	14 703.82	16 814.29	-2 110.47
西部地区	12 964.84	25 776.67	-12 811.83	12 964.85	15 477.36	-2 512.51
平均	14 897.34	30 675.08	-15 777.74	14 897.34	17 152.57	-2 255.23

变量	消费潜力	消费潜力	消费潜力	消费潜力
变量	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）
DID	-0.092***	-0.082**	-0.059**	-0.065**
DID	（0.034）	（0.033）	（0.027）	（0.028）
户主年龄		0.008	0.003	0.003
户主年龄		（0.006）	（0.005）	（0.005）
性别		0.327	0.068	0.069
性别		（0.321）	（0.120）	（0.118）
受教育年限		-0.053***	-0.059***	-0.058***
受教育年限		（0.006）	（0.005）	（0.005）
婚姻状况		-0.065	0.099**	0.098**
婚姻状况		（0.061）	（0.048）	（0.048）
健康状况		0.007	0.015**	0.015**
健康状况		（0.009）	（0.007）	（0.007）
医疗保险		0.280***	0.258***	0.255***
医疗保险		（0.039）	（0.031）	（0.031）
家庭总收入对数			-0.048***	-0.048***
家庭总收入对数			（0.009）	（0.009）
是否自有住房			-0.047	-0.050
是否自有住房			（0.031）	（0.031）
家庭人均支出			0.962***	0.963***
家庭人均支出			（0.011）	（0.011）
家庭抚养比			0.060***	0.062***
家庭抚养比			（0.015）	（0.015）
经济发展水平			-0.093	-0.253**
经济发展水平			（0.095）	（0.106）
城乡收入差距				-0.286*
城乡收入差距				（0.150）
人力资本水平				13.720*
人力资本水平				（7.030）
城乡物价差距				0.012
城乡物价差距				（0.018）
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是
个体固定效应	是	是	是	是
常数项	-0.732***	-1.103***	-7.699***	-5.442***
常数项	（0.025）	（0.315）	（1.013）	（1.326）
样本量/个	24 566	24 566	24 566	24 566
R²	0.041	0.051	0.402	0.403

变量	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）
变量	虚构政策时间为2014年	虚构政策时间为2012年	增加地区固定效应	缩尾回归	排除“宽带中国”政策影响
DID	-0.057	-0.030	-0.070**	-0.069**	-0.077***
DID	（-1.545）	（-0.656）	（0.028）	（0.027）	（0.029）
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是
家庭固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
年份固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
常数项	-5.394***	-5.653***		-5.626***	-5.121***
常数项	（-3.985）	（-4.155）		（1.330）	（1.352）
样本量/个	24 566	24 566	19 932	24 566	24 566
R²	0.402	0.402	0.644	0.401	0.403

变量	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）	（6）	（7）	（8）	（9）	（10）
变量	女性户主家庭	男性户主家庭	低收入家庭	高收入家庭	青年家庭	中年家庭	老年家庭	东部地区	中部地区	西部地区
DID	-0.026	-0.079**	-0.140***	0.034	0.057	-0.092**	-0.020	-0.070**	0.023	-0.017
DID	（0.047）	（0.035）	（0.044）	（0.046）	（0.081）	（0.038）	（0.088）	（0.035）	（0.040）	（0.077）
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
个体固定效应	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
常数项	-5.878***	-5.366***	-6.809***	-2.770	-2.381	-3.930**	-13.00**	-6.438***	-5.346***	-5.902**
常数项	（2.228）	（1.671）	（2.071）	（2.174）	（3.951）	（1.912）	（5.349）	（1.896）	（1.710）	（2.531）
样本量/个	9 589	14 977	12 563	12 003	5 256	13 913	5 397	8 246	6 854	9 466
R²	0.409	0.401	0.411	0.383	0.364	0.413	0.381	0.388	0.398	0.420

变量	（1）	（2）	（3）
变量	收入效应	技术溢出效应	调节效应
DID	0.108**	0.032***	-0.069**
DID	（0.046）	（0.008）	（0.028）
家庭负债			0.002
家庭负债			（0.002）
DID×家庭负债			-0.013***
DID×家庭负债			（0.004）
控制变量	是	是	是
个体固定效应	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是
常数项	-15.39***	-4.570***	-5.533***
常数项	（3.175）	（0.762）	（1.326）
样本量/个	24 566	24 566	24 566
R²	0.295	0.855	0.403

Impact of the Construction of National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones on Rural Residents' Consumption Potential: Evidence from CFPS Data

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