关键词: 数字经济, 国家大数据综合试验区, 农村居民消费, 消费潜力, 双重差分法, 倾向得分匹配

Abstract:

[Purpose/Significance] Unleashing the consumption potential of rural residents plays a pivotal role in expanding domestic demand and cultivating new economic growth points. The digital economy, driven by data elements as the core force, is gradually becoming a key engine to activate the consumption potential of urban and rural areas in China and promote consumption upgrading. National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones (NBDCPZs), with their "agglomeration of data elements, cross-domain collaborative empowerment, and precise service matching", continuously meet the personalized and diversified consumption demands of rural residents, and have unique value in unleashing the consumption potential of rural residents. [Method/Process] After conducting a theoretical analysis of the impact of the NBDCPZs on the consumption potential of rural residents, this study formulates corresponding research hypotheses. This study uses data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2010 to 2022 and considers the "National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones" policy as a quasi-natural experiment. On the basis of measuring rural residents' consumption potential using the propensity score matching (PSM) method, the difference-in-differences (DID) method is employed to evaluate the impact of NBDCPZs construction on rural residents' consumption potential. [Results/Conclusions] The research findings are as follows: 1) After balancing the endowment characteristics of urban and rural households via the PSM method, the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents was found to be 2 255.23 yuan less than that of urban residents. This indicates that rural areas still have enormous untapped consumption potential. 2) The construction of NBDCPZs significantly promotes the release of rural residents' consumption potential, and this conclusion remains robust after undergoing the parallel trend test, placebo test, counterfactual test, addition of fixed effects, and exclusion of the impacts of other policies. 3) An analysis of heterogeneity across sample household and regional characteristics reveals that the effect of NBDCPZs construction on unlocking rural residents' consumption potential is particularly prominent in eastern China, and is more salient in rural households with a male household head, low income, and middle-aged composition. 4)The mechanism of action indicates that the "National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones" policy releases the consumption potential of rural residents by increasing their income levels and enhancing technological progress in rural areas. Furthermore, household debt exerts a positive moderating effect on the process of releasing rural residents' consumption potential through the construction of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones. Based on the research conclusions, the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: 1) Advance the differentiated layout and integrated application of rural digital infrastructure; 2) Establish a long-term mechanism for enhancing rural residents' digital literacy; 3) Optimize the income increase system for rural residents and consolidate the foundation for consumption upgrading.

Key words: digital economy, National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones (NBDCPZs), rural residents' consumption, consumption potential, difference-in-differences (DID), propensity score matching (PSM)